Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The typical number of everyday homicides monthly in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent official figures. But, public safety analysts have warned that murder numbers could fail to indicate better national security.

Marked Drop in Daily Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when the President began the presidency in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had over these months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the lowest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense organized crime infighting, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that using murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to accurately recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst concluded.